The past 50 years has been a period of exceptionally rapid economic expansion. Average per capita income almost tripled, and the global economy expanded sixfold in GDP terms. But the long-term growth outlook is extremely uncertain. Some observers raise the issue of challenging demographics; they talk about secular stagnation and express doubts about whether future growth can match its rapid upward trajectory of recent decades. Others point to the transformative impact of technology and paint a more optimistic picture. The debate about growth goes even deeper and broader than this. Many question whether and how growth can be sustainable and inclusive. There is a lively discussion about whether GDP is the right measure of growth. Amid such debate, it is difficult for policy makers and businesses to respond effectively. According to a recent McKinsey Global Institute report, it could be possible for annual productivity growth to more than counter downward trends. Can productivity save the day and overcome the forces that now threaten global economic prosperity? If so, how? This Churchill Club program is brought to you in partnership with Wharton SF and McKinsey Global Institute.
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Jaana Remes, Partner, McKinsey Global Institute
Paul Thomas, Chief Economist, Intel Corporation
Hal Varian, Chief Economist, Google
George Anders, Contributing Writer, Forbes